The amazing Suzanne Lazicki has done it AGAIN, this time using her number-crunching skills to distill the recently released EB-5 processing statistics into invaluable information for EB-5 investors, regional centers, and attorneys.
For those of you who want to go deep, see her full article is here.
For the rest of you, here are the key takeaways from Suzanne:
For the past 4-5 months I’ve been telling AVS EB-5 investors that between the reduction in I-526 applications (as a result of the China and Vietnam backlogs) and the improved USCIS processing times, I’m expecting to see one year approvals like those we are now getting for Lake Point investors continue and improve. My prediction has been totally unscientific and simply based on decades of experience and my gut.
Well, Suzanne and her Watson-esque cerebral superprocessor just ran the complex numbers – you can see her graphs and details in the link above – and her conclusion:
“[P]eople who file I-526 now in November 2018…can expect their petitions to be processed in less than a year…. Both [EB-5} issuers and investors will benefit going forward from relatively prompt adjudication of investor petitions.”
Talk about VALIDATION! When I read that I felt like Luke Skywalker after he’d decided to use the Force instead of R2D2 and successfully destroyed the Death Star! Go with the gut. But seriously: it is very reassuring to me that Suzanne’s exacting extrapolation from the data backs up my admittedly-unscientific predictions.
But even better news is what she concluded regarding how long Vietnam EB-5 investors will be waiting for the backlog to clear. Noting that it was a “point in time prediction”, she says that Charles Oppenheimer’s 7.2 year wait predicted for Vietnam last month (which scared the heck out of everyone) will actually shorter, most likely. It’s extremely difficult to explain, but these future predictions of backlog reduction are invariably inaccurate because they are just the snapshot of a complex series of data at one moment in time; the underlying data upon which the predictions are based changes the very next day, so it’s like aiming a boat without considering wind and current…you won’t get where you want to go! The bottom line is Suzanne thinks the backlog for Vietmam is less than last month’s worrisome predication, another data-driven conclusion affirming my own gut opinion.
Finally, I’ve been telling investors that Ira Kurzban’s lawsuit against USCIS seeking to establish that Congress intended 10,000 EB-5 investors per year, not 10,000 investors and family members is likely to succeed. Legislative history makes it crystal clear that this was the case, the federal court has already favorably granted the lawsuit class status, and if anyone on the planet is qualified to correct this two-decade old administrative bungle, it is the mighty Ira Kurzban. Go get ’em, Ira, and….
….May the Force be with you!
Jose
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